PFL books Francis Ngannou’s debut: Is the timing right?

Nearly 15 months after it was announced that Francis Ngannou had signed a deal with the PFL following his UFC departure, the promotion finally has something on the books.

That should be cause for celebration for all PFL brass, whom have been eagerly waiting for this moment after Ngannou took a side quest into boxing for a pair of high-profile bouts with Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua. But the timing does bring an abundance of questions.

PFL announced on Wednesday that Ngannou will compete in MMA at its Oct. 19 pay-per-view event for the first time since his January 2022 victory over Ciryl Gane at UFC 270. “The Predator” will take on Brazil’s Renan Ferreira, a hulking physical specimen standing 6-foot-8 who tore through the 2023 PFL season with three consecutive knockouts. Moreover, he needed just 21 seconds to obliterate Ryan Bader at February’s PFL vs. Bellator: Champions event to cement himself as the one who will welcome Ngannou back to the cage.

It’s a solid fight, all things considered. Ferreira is as close to a homegrown product as PFL can find in its heavyweight division, and the power he has displayed in previous fights makes it impossible to rule out his chances at pulling off an upset.

In fact, if you had to handicap Ferreira’s odds of beating Ngannou, a number of external factors might this his best possible opportunity. Why? The prominent questions are threefold around Ngannou at this point.

1. Ngannou underwent a serious knee surgery in the aftermath of UFC 270 back in 2022, and although he seemed to move around reasonably well in his boxing matches against Fury and Joshua, it was the more favorable sport to return to for his particular injury. We don’t know how Ngannou will hold up with kicking, being kicked, or any defensive grappling he might need (though that might not be much of a concern against Ferreira). The erratic movements required for MMA around the larger surface of a cage is not to be understated, and it will be the first time we’ve seen Ngannou’s repaired knee truly put to the test in live action.
2. Ngannou was knocked out, and knocked out bad by Joshua in their boxing match back in March. It was the first and only time Ngannou has been stopped inside the distance during his combat sports career, and as someone who was ringside in Saudi Arabia the night that happened, the potential change in his durability stemming from that knockout cannot be dismissed. Ngannou will be 38 by the time his fight against Ferreira unfolds, and to return from his first KO against this type of hitter, is a big role of the dice.
3. The mental state of Ngannou might be the biggest mystery and cause for concern heading into this bout. Many people will go their entire life without experiencing an unspeakable tragedy like Ngannou and his family endured earlier this year when his 15-month old son, Kobe, died suddenly. Ngannou opened up about the heartbreaking situation during an interview with Joe Rogan a few weeks ago, and it’s clear he is still grieving. That’s no surprise whatsoever, and it’ll be a trauma he carries with him for the rest of his life. It’s impossible for anyone but him to know what his psyche will be like for competition.

When you line up everything above in a row, it seems grim for Ngannou. Or at minimum, worrisome. But if there’s one thing this man has proven time and time again throughout his inspiring and harrowing life story, it’s that no obstacle is too big for him to attempt to overcome.

Ngannou has thrived off everyone’s doubt his entire life. They said he would never become UFC champion. They said he would never effectively wield his power to exit the UFC on his terms. They said he would never secure a money boxing match against Tyson Fury, and let alone be competitive in it. Now they are saying the circumstances here might be too much.

Just a few short years ago there was no question Ngannou deserved “The Baddest Man on the Planet” label. We found out that wasn’t the case in the boxing ring, but it might very well still be in MMA. What Jon Jones and Tom Aspinall have done in the UFC has muddied the waters, but Ngannou has the chance to send a reminder in a little more than two months.

If his track record is worth anything, the circumstances will be damned, and he’ll do just that.