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UFC 305 Roundtable: Who has more at stake between Dricus du Plessis and Israel Adesanya?

UFC 305 is a legacy-defining card nearly two years in the making.

This Saturday, Dricus du Plessis defends his middleweight title against former two-time champion Israel Adesanya in the main event of UFC 305, in Perth, Australia. It’s a fight that’s been building for months upon months, with heaps of expectation and intrigue surrounding it. Can du Plessis back up his mountains of trash talk or will Adesanya join Randy Couture as only the second fighter ever to win a third title in the same weight class?

But before that, in the co-main event, former flyweight title challenger Steve Erceg makes his return to the cage after falling short against champion Alexandre Pantoja, taking on perennial contender Kai Kara-France on home soil. How will this fight affect the flyweight division and Pantoja’s stranglehold on the weight class?

MMA Fighting’s Jed Meshew, Damon Martin, and Shaun Al-Shatti convene to chat about some of the biggest storylines heading into UFC 305 this weekend.

1. Who has more riding on a win at UFC 305, Dricus du Plessis or Israel Adesanya?

Al-Shatti: The answer is Israel Adesanya, and it’s not really close. Aside from the obvious factors of age and experience giving du Plessis the longer runway to climb back to the belt (the champ is five years younger and far less battle-weary), Adesanya is teetering on a razor’s edge of that inevitable thing we just tend to do in pro sports: Retroactive legacy readjustment. Right now, “The Last Stylebender” is pretty widely hailed as the second-greatest middleweight of all-time. There was some GOAT talk starting to dribble out of the dumber side of MMA at one point during his peak reign, but that was always reactionary drivel and I’m glad we as a community have adjusted accordingly since The Stricklanding.

Adesanya can likely cement his title forever as the second-best to ever do it at 185 pounds if he waltzes out to Perth and beats a man he clearly disdains to become a three-time champ. But if he loses for a third time over his past four fights and drops to 7-4 in undisputed UFC title bouts? Suddenly the door swings open for that résumé to start getting ripped apart with a fine-tooth comb. Just picture it in your mind. Say Adesanya gets rinsed by du Plessis — you already know what the response will be. Izzy was never actually that good. He reigned over a weak middleweight division. His only good wins were Whittaker and Pereira, but he should’ve lost the rematch against the former and it took him four tries to do the latter.

Which, you know, fair. Obviously some of that is revisionism at its finest, but a hit list filled with Marvin Vettoris and Paulo Costas hasn’t exactly aged as gracefully as we expected in 2021. If there’s a world where we end up looking back at this middleweight era and its top standouts are Whittaker, Strickland, Adesanya, and du Plessis in some order, and Adesanya has lost badly to two of the other three, his place in the pantheon may look quite a bit different than it once did, especially with his straight-up refusal to fight Pereira again.

“DDP” doesn’t share those same kind of weighty stakes, at least not yet.

UFC 293: Adesanya v Strickland — Israel Adesanya

Martin: As much as Dricus du Plessis has riding on this one as the incumbent champion, there’s no doubt Israel Adesanya has more on the line as the challenger.

It’s been almost a year since we last saw Adesenya and that night he lost in lopsided fashion to Sean Strickland — a fighter he seemed destined to beat as the loud-mouthed middleweight was basically serving as a stand-in for du Plessis when he couldn’t make a quick turnaround to fight in July and then again in September. Instead, Strickland beat the brakes off Adesanya and took the title from him. Since that time, Adesanya has largely stayed in the shadows and he’s continued to lurk on the outside looking in, basically being a recluse from media or public appearances, which seems to signal he’s only interested in fixing what went wrong in his last fight and making sure he’s ready to take the title back now that du Plessis is champion.

Winning fixes everything in this sport but losing is so catastrophic that a second straight defeat could spell utter doom for Adesanya. At 35, another loss could make it much tougher to tell if Adesanya is still in the middle of his prime or beginning that slow — or potentially fast — expulsion from the island of relevancy. His performance at UFC 305 could determine if Adesanya puts himself back in the conversation as one of the all-time greats, perhaps riding shotgun to middleweight GOAT Anderson Silva, or if his best days are truly behind him. There’s even a real world scenario where a bad loss could end with Adesanya saying, “Peace out, see ya, don’t want to be ya.”

And that’s not even factoring in the intense rivalry that Adesanya shares with du Plessis after their borderline “should we even be talking about this” trash talk about who was a real African turned uncomfortable long before this fight ever got made. It all adds up to Adesanya desperately needing a win because he can ill afford another loss, especially if du Plessis is the guy who gives it to him.

Meshew: Both of my colleagues are horribly mistaken: Dricus du Plessis has the most to lose on Saturday. By a WIDE margin.

First off, in a very literal sense, DDP is the one with something to lose right now. He has a shiny belt he gets to carry around. Adesanya does not. So if DDP loses, he will directly and tangibly lose a belt. How will he hold up his pants?!?!

But more to the point, du Plessis is also the one risking his legacy on Saturday, for all the exact reasons Shaheen and Damon noted.

Adesanya is the second greatest middleweight of all time. It is almost incontrovertible unless you’re arguing with a real Munson. That means that, ultimately, he doesn’t have much to lose. Sure, a loss means he can’t chase down Anderson Silva for GOAT status, but he never was doing that anyway. And the man has solidified himself enough that a loss doesn’t take the silver medal away from him either. Sure, some bozos will try and re-write history but there’s always a turd in the punch bowl. They don’t make the rules and they don’t matter.

On top of that, Adesanya is 35 years old and not a young 35. Man has been kickboxing for a lifetime. He’s got city miles on him. 113 official fights and counting, and the number is probably well north of that, adding in all the gym wars, street scuffles, and whatever the hell else he’s gotten up to in his life. The human body can only take so much and Adesanya’s pushed his further than most. And everyone knows it. If he loses to DDP, there’s a built-in escape hatch. “Well, Izzy got old. Father Time comes for us all. But man, think about when he was in his prime.” That’s how the conversations go.

Conversely, du Plessis is a new, young champion in the prime of his career. The man has been talking a springbok-sized mountain of crap for a long time about Adesanya and now the bill has come due. If he goes out there and gets washed, the stain will live with him forever. He’ll be dunked on relentlessly for the rest of his career. Because lord knows Adesanya isn’t one to let things go. We’ll get Jon Jones-levels of petty Tweets for the remainder of his career.

Plus, DDP’s title win was controversial. If he doesn’t defend the title, it’ll be erased, far more than Adesanya’s legacy will. Yes, he’ll forever be a champion, but so was Dave Menne and we don’t talk about him at all.

Maybe du Plessis could get back to the belt after a loss, but he’ll never get back what he will lose on Saturday night. Other than the thing to hold up his pants.

2. How far away from a title shot are Kai Kara-France and Steve Erceg?

Martin: What in the world happened to the depth in the UFC flyweight division?

For a while it seemed like the 125-pound division was flourishing, especially with a series of thrilling matches between Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo. Now one of those guys is on indefinite hiatus and the other is closing in on a title shot in the bantamweight division. That leaves champion Alexandre Pantoja without a lot of options right now.

Despite Pantoja standing around without a true No. 1 contender, it’s crazy to consider that Kara-France or Erceg should even sniff a title shot without three or four wins in a row. First off, Erceg just lost to Pantoja — yes, it was a compelling, close-fought battle but the result still went to the champion and let’s be honest, “Astro Boy” got the opportunity by default anyways when the UFC desperately needed a fight to headline a card in Brazil after exhausting the reserves to build UFC 300 into an unforgettable event.

Meanwhile, Kara-France lost his last two fights — albeit one of those in disputed fashion — but he also hasn’t been seen since that night in June 2023. Even if he tears through Erceg impressively, there’s no world where he should get a title shot without at least a couple more wins.

Where does that leave Pantoja exactly? Maybe the UFC should look towards the land of the RIZIN sun.

Meshew: Another way to ask this question is: what the (Mike) Heck does this fight even mean? And the answer is diddly squat.

Don’t get me wrong, the co-main event on Saturday is gas. Premium, 93 octane gasoline. But it doesn’t mean much. As Damon noted, “KKF” is on a two-fight losing streak. Sure, a win puts him back in the mix but even in a weight class desperate for new challengers, at best this puts him one away.

And my boy Vincenzo, AKA “Vinny Cigs,” just lost to the current champion. If Brandon Royval beats Tatsuro Taira, he’d have that same problem but a better resume. E-Cig is still up a creek there (and if Taira wins, he’s getting the title shot). Plus, at some point Amir Albazi will probably fight again, and at this rate, might just get a title shot via process of elimination.

No, both men are still a few away from scrapping for the belt, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t anything on the line. As Damon noted, Kai Asakura is making his way to the octagon and I strongly suspect his debut will come against the winner of this fight right here. Either a battle of the Kais or “Astro Boy” gets a chance to establish himself as Steve “Kai Killer” Erceg. Then we’ll just need the UFC to trade for Kai Kamaka III to complete the quest, before Erceg bumps up to middleweight and challenges Caio Borralho, to see the true extent of his powers.

Al-Shatti: As much as it pains me, Vinny Cigs still has some work to do regardless of what happens at UFC 305. He just challenged for the belt in May and even that was more of a rare “Well, we really don’t have any other options, do we?” type of scenario. As well as he acquitted himself in that Pantoja fight, Erceg isn’t the guy who’s going to be given a second shortcut in line anytime soon. But Kara-France? Oh baby. For him, it’s riiiiiight there for the taking. The unlikely nobody-won outcome of UFC 304’s marquee flyweight fight left this division adrift without a clear — or even murky — No. 1 contender. A Kara-France coming off a UFC 305 win would pretty much be the only elite name left at 125 pounds with, A) Any tangible sense of momentum, and B) No disqualifying history with the champ. (Kara-France lost to Pantoja on TUF 24, but that was an exhibition fight more than eight years ago.)

Even his loss to the only other viable option right now (Amir Albazi) can be easily hand-waved away with one glance at MMA Decisions and Albazi’s inactivity since. Tatsuro Taira remains one win away and I still expect UFC to give Asakura a welcome-to-the-show fight before throwing him straight into the title mix. So make no mistake about it, whether he deserves it or not, Kai Kara-France is vying for gold next if he wins at UFC 305.

3. What fight from the undercard are you most interested in?

Martin: UFC 305 is incredibly top heavy but one prelim that got my attention ahead of this weekend is Jack Jenkins returning from injury to face Herbert Burns. Now you might be asking how is this a compelling fight when one guy is coming off a horrific elbow dislocation and the other has a history with his gas tank matching a heavyweight journeyman fighting at Denver altitude?

That’s exactly why this is a fun fight!

With Jenkins’ past reputation built around his uncanny ability to literally break his opponents’ legs with kicks and Burns knowing that his UFC career is dangling by a thread after three straight losses where only an impressive win might keep his roster spot, that sets up the potential for some real fireworks.

Of course, Burns could also try to play it safe, but it’s tough to imagine he’s going to lean on his less-than-reliable conditioning enough to try and grind out Jenkins for three rounds. Instead, Burns may just throw caution to the wind and go for broke while Jenkins attempts to chop him down like a lumberjack going after an Australian eucalyptus tree. That could result in a surprisingly wild finish.

Al-Shatti: Oh man. This really isn’t the most inspiring lineup, eh? Since one obvious pick is already taken, I suppose I’ll go off the board and sneak in Tom Nolan vs. Alex Reyes from the deep prelims. Firstly, did y’all know Nolan is a 6-foot-3 lightweight?! He is! That’s wildly absurd but I love it dearly. But also, I respect the instincts of my friend Jed (sometimes against my better judgement), and when he boldly labeled the former Rugby player as his No. 1 prospect among the 47 signees of the most recent Contender Series season, I had to take notice.

And I’m glad I did.

Nolan may have slipped on the proverbial banana peel in his UFC debut, but his sophomore effort against Victor Martinez was a vicious reminder of the potential of the man Mr. Meshew so aptly described as “a lightweight with shades of Jalin Turner crossed with Dan Hooker.” Nolan is huge, he’s mean, he’s athletic, and he’s been given the perfect dance partner with a get-or-get-got all-star like the 37-year-old Reyes. Make no mistake, this one is a showcase for Nolan’s unique brand of ultra-violence, and I am very much here for it.

Meshew: Because Shaheen is a butt, he took the guy I was OBVIOUSLY going to take and I’m now in a bind here because most of these fights are uninspiring.

So, given the tragic skullduggery that has ensued, I will just cheat and choose the most obvious choice that’s ever shot a boot: Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

“But Jed, that’s on the main card!” Tough noogies. I’m editing this piece and thus no one can stop me. And for as much as I am somewhat interested in Casey O’Neill — talented fighter on the verge of collapsing behind a bad losing streak — we need to talk about another fighter who fits that criteria: Tai Tuivasa.

Two years ago, Tuivasa was shockingly close to knocking out Ciryl Gane and fighting for an honest-to-Shiva UFC title. It was a time when logic and rationality had been locked in the trunk and vibes had taken the wheel and slammed the pedal down. Had he done it, I somehow feel the world would be a better place right this moment. But instead, Gane survived and won and since then, the vibes have been atrocious.

Four losses in a row, two in the first round, and one by Odin-damned ezekiel choke. There are toddlers alive today that have never even seen a shoey. You call this a society? We oughta leave this world behind.

And Saturday, we have the chance to. Rozenstruik is a kickboxer, so there’s almost no chance he tackles and submits Tuivasa, meaning he’s “down to get down” as “Bam Bam” likes to say. And while Rozenstruik isn’t toothless in there, he’s also not Sergei Pavlovich. There’s a real chance Tai can resurrect the old Bam Bam and get this party started again.

Make MMA Shoey Again, 2024.