Which UFC 305 fighters are under most duress?

Mateusz Gamrot appears to be the red-headed stepchild of the UFC lightweight title picture. Despite holding wins over Rafael dos Anjos, Rafael Fiziev, Jalin Turner and Arman Tsarukyan, the Polish fighter has been able to gain little traction for a shot at the belt.

The nature of a lot of those wins has held him back. As has a poorly-timed loss to Beneil Dariush in October 2022. But on paper, Gamrot (24-2 MMA, 7-2 UFC) has won seven of his past eight, yet still finds himself fighting down in the rankings against Dan Hooker (23-12 MMA, 13-8 UFC) on an international pay-per-view.

Gamrot deserves credit for what he is doing here. Instead of moaning and complaining about not getting certain opportunities or certain fights, he has kept his nose to the grindstone and kept focused on the task at hand. That’s pretty much his only option at this point, and he can’t allow himself to slip.

Hooker is going to come motivated and with a violent mindset to take out Gamrot, because a win would do wonders for his career. Gamrot, meanwhile, has everything to lose. He’s going to be pushed further away from his title goal than ever if he doesn’t win against Hooker, and it would take something miraculous to get him back.

It feels like a lifetime ago at this point that Tai Tuivasa was on a five-fight knockout streak in the heavyweight division and placed into a main event fight with Ciryl Gane that, had he won, might’ve led to a vacant championship bout with Jon Jones.

He didn’t get the job done on that September 2022 night, however, and it’s been a downhill slide ever since.

Tuivasa (14-7 MMA, 8-7 UFC) enters his main card matchup with Jairzinho Rozenstruik (14-5 MMA, 8-5 UFC) on a four-fight losing skid. Granted, those losses came to the elite in Gane, Sergei Pavlovich, Alexander Volkov and Marcin Tybura, but for the most part, they’ve been relatively lopsided contests.

No matter how many losses he takes, Tuivasa continues to be beloved. His personality and fighting style is always worth tuning in for, and in fairness to him, he’s been here before. Tuivasa also lost four-straight from 2018-2019 before he turned it around and went on his big streak.

Can Tuivasa do it again? Well you can’t get on a streak without getting the first one, and Rozenstruik has a style that should give Tuivasa the type of fight he wants. If he loses this one badly, things are going to get real dicey with his UFC career.

They say you’re not truly a champion until you defend your title, and for Dricus Du Plessis, a first title defense doesn’t come in much juicier of a spot than this one.

If this is truly Du Plessis’ (21-2 MMA, 7-0 UFC) time and a lengthy reign is on the horizon with him, you couldn’t ask for more of dream scenario than kicking it off this way. Israel Adesanya is one of the true great champions the middleweight division has ever seen, and for Du Plessis to put that scalp on his resume would be a big deal. He won’t get a chance to fight a prime Anderson Silva, obviously, so this is as significant as it gets.

If Du Plessis loses this fight, he might never get another chance. Adesanya has other business to tend to, and could easily retire or change divisions before Du Plessis ever positions himself for a rematch. So this is truly the one.

None of that speaks to all the other narratives surrounding this fight. Du Plessis has made it clear from Day 1 that he thinks he’s Adesanya’s perfect stylistic foil, and he needs to back up his words to create maximum interest around his reign.

If, for whatever reason, Du Plessis loses in a humiliating or definitive manner, you can be certain his critics will point to his split decision win over Sean Strickland in January that got him the belt and claim he should’ve never been in this position anyway.

There’s no higher degree of curiosity entering UFC 305 than that around former two-time middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, who outright told me in our pre-fight interview last week that he needs to prove to himself he’s still got it.

There’s no bigger weight for an athlete to carry on their shoulders than that. Knowing whether they are still “that guy,” as Adesanya (24-3 MMA, 13-3 UFC) put it. And it’s a completely realistic question to ask.

Adesanya has already made his legacy. Let’s get that straight. His success during his first stint as champion puts him in the conversation with Anderson Silva for the greatest champion the division has ever seen. His recapturing the belt with an insane knockout of Alex Pereira was magical and the stuff of legends. But what happened after that raises all the speculation of whether Adesanya’s best days are over.

His performance against Sean Strickland in September was uninspired compared to what we’ve seen from “The Last Stylebender.” He took an 11-month layoff after that fight, and while that’s not very long in terms of average in the fight game, for Adesanya, it is simply unprecedented.

Adesanya has never had a break between fights this long since he entered combat sports in 2010. It shouldn’t be underestimated how much that mental and physical recovery time could benefit him. But even without that, Adesanya should absolutely not be short on motivation for this fight.

We all know the backstory between Adesanya and Du Plessis to this point. Adesanya is making some seriously bold statements about what he’s going to do inside the octagon on Saturday, and if he can’t deliver, he’s going to be faced with some very, very difficult questions.